Sunday, 18 March 2012

World economic outlook from the IMF: just how bad will things get?


The world economy has deteriorated sharply in the last few months as
the eurozone crisis dragged down the global recovery, according to the
latest predictions from the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF slashed its forecasts for economic growth in its new World
Economic Outlook, released today. It now expects the
eurozone to shrink during 2012, and warned that the eurozone crisis
will drag down growth in other nations too.

The data shows the effect of fiscal austerity - Italy is expected to
suffer a 2.2% contraction in 2012, while Spain is tipped to shrink by
1.7%. That means that total euro area GDP will fall by 0.5% this year
- down from a previous forecast of 1.1% growth.
Roll over chart for data
The UK's growth forecast was cut back sharply for 2012, to just 0.6%
from 1.6% in the IMF's last forecast.
Just one country or region avoided having its economic forecast for
2012 cut. The IMF still believes America's GDP will grow by 1.8% this
year. The US has prioritised economic stimulus measures over fiscal
cutbacks - following the deal that will allow its national debt to
grow into the next presidential term.
Roll over chart for data
However the developing world and the high-growth Asian economies will continue to outpace the advanced economies of Europe, Japan and the US as the power balance shifts inexorably.
Roll over chart for data
The IMF also predicts the strength of international currencies over the next few years. It shows the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow euros will remain worryingly high.
We've extracted the key data from the report below. What can you do with it?

Data summary

IMF projections

Click heading to sort table. Download this data
Place, subject
Type
2010
2011
2012
2013
World OutputGDP change5.23.83.33.9
Advanced EconomiesGDP change3.21.61.21.9
United StatesGDP change31.81.82.2
Euro AreaGDP change1.91.6-0.50.8
GermanyGDP change3.630.31.5
FranceGDP change1.41.60.21
ItalyGDP change1.50.4-2.2-0.6
SpainGDP change-0.10.7-1.7-0.3
JapanGDP change4.4-0.91.71.6
United KingdomGDP change2.10.90.62
CanadaGDP change3.22.31.72
Other Advanced EconomiesGDP change5.83.32.63.4
Newly Industrialized Asian EconomiesGDP change8.44.23.34.1
Emerging and Developing EconomiesGDP change7.36.25.45.9
Central and Eastern EuropeGDP change4.55.11.12.4
Commonwealth of Independent StatesGDP change4.64.53.73.8
RussiaGDP change44.13.33.5
Excluding RussiaGDP change65.54.44.7
Developing AsiaGDP change9.57.97.37.8
ChinaGDP change10.49.28.28.8
IndiaGDP change9.97.477.3
ASEAN-5GDP change6.94.85.25.6
Latin America and the CaribbeanGDP change6.14.63.63.9
BrazilGDP change7.52.934
MexicoGDP change5.44.13.53.5
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)GDP change4.33.13.23.6
Sub-Saharan AfricaGDP change5.34.95.55.3
South AfricaGDP change2.93.12.53.4
European UnionGDP change21.6-0.11.2
World Growth Based on Market Exchange RatesGDP change4.12.82.53.2
World Trade Volume (goods and services)Trade12.76.93.85.4
Advanced EconomiesImports11.54.823.9
Emerging and Developing EconomiesImports1511.37.17.7
Advanced EconomiesExports12.25.52.44.7
Emerging and Developing EconomiesExports13.896.17
OilCommodity Prices (U.S. dollars)27.931.9-4.9-3.6
Nonfuel (average based on world commodity export weights)Commodity Prices (U.S. dollars)26.317.7-14-1.7
Advanced EconomiesInflation1.62.71.61.3
Emerging and Developing EconomiesInflation6.17.26.25.5
On U.S. Dollar DepositsLondon Interbank Offered Rate (percent)0.50.50.90.9
On Euro DepositsLondon Interbank Offered Rate (percent)0.81.41.11.2
On Japanese Yen DepositsLondon Interbank Offered Rate (percent)0.40.40.50.2

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